D.6 ECM Yield

D.6 Brown Swiss: ECM Yield

D.6.1: Full Period: 1982-2023

Model Summary

A. parametric coefficients	Estimate	Std. Error	t-value	p-value
(Intercept)	14.5118	0.8535	17.0028	\( < 0.0001 \)
parityprimiparous	-2.9261	0.0097	-302.9145	\( < 0.0001 \)
year1983	2.1332	0.6325	3.3729	0.0007
year1984	2.6187	0.7871	3.3272	0.0009
year1985	3.1363	0.8022	3.9096	0.0001
year1986	3.0575	0.8070	3.7887	0.0002
year1987	2.8836	0.8204	3.5151	0.0004
year1988	2.8943	0.8284	3.4937	0.0005
year1989	3.5360	0.8366	4.2266	\( < 0.0001 \)
year1990	3.8219	0.8595	4.4468	\( < 0.0001 \)
year1991	4.1067	0.8646	4.7501	\( < 0.0001 \)
year1992	4.2306	0.8658	4.8865	\( < 0.0001 \)
year1993	4.2739	0.8685	4.9207	\( < 0.0001 \)
year1994	4.0330	0.8796	4.5849	\( < 0.0001 \)
year1995	4.2135	0.8966	4.6996	\( < 0.0001 \)
year1996	4.2852	0.9007	4.7578	\( < 0.0001 \)
year1997	4.8949	0.9033	5.4190	\( < 0.0001 \)
year1998	5.8103	0.9031	6.4340	\( < 0.0001 \)
year1999	5.5766	0.9031	6.1749	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2000	5.5808	0.9036	6.1764	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2001	6.5297	0.9042	7.2213	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2002	6.6744	0.8989	7.4254	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2003	6.8026	0.8992	7.5648	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2004	7.4423	0.9029	8.2427	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2005	7.4488	0.9029	8.2496	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2006	7.5081	0.9031	8.3140	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2007	7.4430	0.9024	8.2480	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2008	7.9538	0.9030	8.8083	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2009	8.0856	0.9036	8.9479	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2010	8.0415	0.9072	8.8641	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2011	8.3067	0.9179	9.0496	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2012	8.7580	0.9302	9.4156	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2013	8.4529	0.9378	9.0131	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2014	8.8439	0.9298	9.5112	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2015	8.9348	0.9238	9.6715	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2016	9.2377	0.9234	10.0036	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2017	9.7481	0.9290	10.4931	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2018	10.1761	0.9294	10.9496	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2019	10.2181	0.9391	10.8810	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2020	10.3778	0.9435	10.9995	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2021	10.6682	0.9527	11.1979	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2022	10.4038	0.9597	10.8405	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2023	10.8333	0.9643	11.2343	\( < 0.0001 \)
B. smooth terms
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):paritymultiparous	7.8150	7.8150	109.8428	\( < 0.0001 \)
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):parityprimiparous	6.1480	6.1480	164.9388	\( < 0.0001 \)
s(days_in_milk_t):paritymultiparous	13.6324	13.6324	91224.2937	\( < 0.0001 \)
s(days_in_milk_t):parityprimiparous	13.2448	13.2448	9763.6690	\( < 0.0001 \)

Table D.32: Brown Swiss: ECM Yield - 1982-2023 - GAMM model summary without random effect terms.

Smooth Term Fixed Effect	Est.	SE	z	p
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multiFx1	-0.2537	0.0841	-3.02	0.0026
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primiFx1	-0.3068	0.0985	-3.12	0.0018
s(days_in_milk_):multiFx1	0.2544	0.3388	0.75	0.4528
s(days_in_milk_):primiFx1	2.7607	0.4988	5.53	\( < 1e-07 \)
Variance Component
\( \sigma_\alpha \)	2.6789
\( \sigma_\iota \)	1.1420
\( \sigma_\phi \)	3.0825
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multi	1.3120
s(days_in_milk_):primi	7.4999
s(days_in_milk_):multi	7.2936
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primi	0.9745
Residual	3.4801

Table D.33: Brown Swiss: ECM Yield - 1982-2023 - Mixed Model Summary - Smooth Terms and Random Effects.

Model Diagnostics

Figure D.31: Brown Swiss: ECM Yield - 1982-2023 - Diagnostic Plot

THI Effect and Lactation Curve

Figure D.32: Brown Swiss: ECM Yield - 1982 - 2023 - THI Effect and Lactation Curve

D.6.2: Split Period: Until 2010 - After 2010

D.6.2.1: Split Period: 1982 - 2010

Model Summary

A. parametric coefficients	Estimate	Std. Error	t-value	p-value
(Intercept)	13.9011	0.6172	22.5214	\( < 0.0001 \)
parityprimiparous	-2.7288	0.0073	-375.8442	\( < 0.0001 \)
year1983	2.3196	0.3994	5.8081	\( < 0.0001 \)
year1984	2.9601	0.5001	5.9189	\( < 0.0001 \)
year1985	3.4533	0.5081	6.7972	\( < 0.0001 \)
year1986	3.3724	0.5674	5.9435	\( < 0.0001 \)
year1987	3.2407	0.5760	5.6260	\( < 0.0001 \)
year1988	3.2757	0.6297	5.2018	\( < 0.0001 \)
year1989	3.9381	0.6372	6.1799	\( < 0.0001 \)
year1990	4.2920	0.6390	6.7167	\( < 0.0001 \)
year1991	4.6150	0.6503	7.0969	\( < 0.0001 \)
year1992	4.7898	0.6440	7.4375	\( < 0.0001 \)
year1993	4.8166	0.6435	7.4849	\( < 0.0001 \)
year1994	4.5930	0.6392	7.1860	\( < 0.0001 \)
year1995	4.7651	0.6402	7.4435	\( < 0.0001 \)
year1996	4.9309	0.6414	7.6879	\( < 0.0001 \)
year1997	5.5129	0.6414	8.5948	\( < 0.0001 \)
year1998	6.4300	0.6504	9.8868	\( < 0.0001 \)
year1999	6.2791	0.6555	9.5797	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2000	6.3019	0.6587	9.5676	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2001	7.3628	0.6536	11.2656	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2002	7.4858	0.6503	11.5106	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2003	7.7060	0.6596	11.6835	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2004	8.2838	0.6477	12.7905	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2005	8.3527	0.6448	12.9545	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2006	8.3868	0.6387	13.1301	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2007	8.4348	0.6407	13.1652	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2008	9.0647	0.6390	14.1859	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2009	9.4157	0.6510	14.4640	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2010	9.5503	0.6410	14.8993	\( < 0.0001 \)
B. smooth terms
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):paritymultiparous	8.5445	8.5445	171.0640	\( < 0.0001 \)
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):parityprimiparous	7.2808	7.2808	110.8468	\( < 0.0001 \)
s(days_in_milk_t):paritymultiparous	13.6110	13.6110	145596.5407	\( < 0.0001 \)
s(days_in_milk_t):parityprimiparous	13.1557	13.1557	16561.7603	\( < 0.0001 \)

Table D.34: Brown Swiss: ECM Yield - 1982-2010 - GAMM model summary without random effect terms.

Model Diagnostics

Figure D.33: Brown Swiss: ECM Yield - 1982-2010 - Diagnostic Plot

THI Effect and Lactation Curve

Figure D.34: Brown Swiss: ECM Yield - 1982 - 2010 - THI Effect and Lactation Curve

D.6.2.2: Split Period: 2010 - 2023

Model Summary

A. parametric coefficients	Estimate	Std. Error	t-value	p-value
(Intercept)	23.4859	0.2774	84.6766	\( < 0.0001 \)
parityprimiparous	-3.3904	0.0179	-189.6220	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2012	0.3216	0.2395	1.3429	0.1793
year2013	-0.0251	0.3195	-0.0786	0.9374
year2014	0.3655	0.3711	0.9849	0.3247
year2015	0.3975	0.3590	1.1073	0.2682
year2016	0.7377	0.3481	2.1191	0.0341
year2017	1.0088	0.3421	2.9486	0.0032
year2018	1.6322	0.3411	4.7847	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2019	1.8740	0.3446	5.4377	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2020	1.7913	0.3555	5.0392	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2021	2.1038	0.3165	6.6463	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2022	1.6923	0.3868	4.3751	\( < 0.0001 \)
year2023	1.9646	0.4575	4.2945	\( < 0.0001 \)
B. smooth terms
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):paritymultiparous	8.1229	8.1229	143.3874	\( < 0.0001 \)
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):parityprimiparous	6.2808	6.2808	220.4726	\( < 0.0001 \)
s(days_in_milk_t):paritymultiparous	13.8166	13.8166	68629.0617	\( < 0.0001 \)
s(days_in_milk_t):parityprimiparous	13.1007	13.1007	5270.4166	\( < 0.0001 \)

Table D.36: Brown Swiss: ECM Yield - 2011-2023 - GAMM model summary without random effect terms.

Smooth Term Fixed Effect	Est.	SE	z	p
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multiFx1	-0.1276	0.0935	-1.36	0.1723
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primiFx1	-0.4146	0.1111	-3.73	0.0002
s(days_in_milk_):multiFx1	0.9924	0.3473	2.86	0.0043
s(days_in_milk_):primiFx1	2.9394	0.5111	5.75	\( < 1e-08 \)
Variance Component
\( \sigma_\alpha \)	2.7558
\( \sigma_\iota \)	1.2690
\( \sigma_\phi \)	3.8693
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multi	1.9064
s(days_in_milk_):primi	7.3548
s(days_in_milk_):multi	11.0965
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primi	1.2442
Residual	4.0650

Table D.37: Brown Swiss: ECM Yield - 2011-2023 - Mixed Model Summary - Smooth Terms and Random Effects.

Model Diagnostics

Figure D.35: Brown Swiss: ECM Yield - 2011-2023 - Diagnostic Plot

THI Effect and Lactation Curve

Figure D.36: Brown Swiss: ECM Yield - 2011-2023 - THI Effect and Lactation Curve