D.2 ECM Yield

D.2 Holstein: ECM Yield

D.2.1: Full Period: 1985-2023

Model Summary

A. parametric coefficients	Estimate	Std. Error	t-value	p-value
(Intercept)	20.1076	0.1617	124.3358	\(< 0.0001\)
parityprimiparous	-3.9424	0.0093	-422.7197	\(< 0.0001\)
year1986	0.1635	0.1304	1.2541	0.2098
year1987	-0.1100	0.1299	-0.8464	0.3973
year1988	-0.4448	0.1288	-3.4531	0.0006
year1989	0.1254	0.1278	0.9809	0.3267
year1990	0.5707	0.1281	4.4557	\(< 0.0001\)
year1991	0.7665	0.1268	6.0465	\(< 0.0001\)
year1992	1.1648	0.1260	9.2442	\(< 0.0001\)
year1993	1.2702	0.1250	10.1623	\(< 0.0001\)
year1994	0.9399	0.1233	7.6238	\(< 0.0001\)
year1995	1.3246	0.1236	10.7206	\(< 0.0001\)
year1996	1.7648	0.1222	14.4466	\(< 0.0001\)
year1997	2.3101	0.1223	18.8938	\(< 0.0001\)
year1998	2.9914	0.1206	24.8069	\(< 0.0001\)
year1999	2.6437	0.1193	22.1562	\(< 0.0001\)
year2000	2.5987	0.1186	21.9127	\(< 0.0001\)
year2001	2.9072	0.1179	24.6612	\(< 0.0001\)
year2002	3.0868	0.1175	26.2770	\(< 0.0001\)
year2003	3.5531	0.1171	30.3539	\(< 0.0001\)
year2004	4.0984	0.1169	35.0471	\(< 0.0001\)
year2005	4.7114	0.1167	40.3673	\(< 0.0001\)
year2006	4.6636	0.1166	39.9990	\(< 0.0001\)
year2007	4.3704	0.1165	37.5094	\(< 0.0001\)
year2008	4.7638	0.1164	40.9126	\(< 0.0001\)
year2009	5.1818	0.1165	44.4952	\(< 0.0001\)
year2010	5.8336	0.1164	50.1183	\(< 0.0001\)
year2011	6.0286	0.1164	51.7791	\(< 0.0001\)
year2012	6.1847	0.1167	53.0014	\(< 0.0001\)
year2013	5.7015	0.1168	48.8341	\(< 0.0001\)
year2014	6.3304	0.1167	54.2257	\(< 0.0001\)
year2015	6.7851	0.1168	58.0841	\(< 0.0001\)
year2016	7.3041	0.1170	62.4072	\(< 0.0001\)
year2017	7.3981	0.1169	63.2676	\(< 0.0001\)
year2018	8.0557	0.1171	68.8206	\(< 0.0001\)
year2019	8.2896	0.1171	70.8058	\(< 0.0001\)
year2020	8.9829	0.1174	76.5305	\(< 0.0001\)
year2021	9.5582	0.1170	81.6686	\(< 0.0001\)
year2022	9.6665	0.1169	82.6636	\(< 0.0001\)
year2023	10.4348	0.1167	89.4257	\(< 0.0001\)
B. smooth terms	edf	Ref.df	F-value	p-value
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):paritymultiparous	8.2862	8.2862	226.9355	\(< 0.0001\)
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):parityprimiparous	6.8141	6.8141	229.3868	\(< 0.0001\)
s(days_in_milk_t):paritymultiparous	13.5893	13.5893	104352.5853	\(< 0.0001\)
s(days_in_milk_t):parityprimiparous	12.9465	12.9465	10972.7975	\(< 0.0001\)

Table D.7: Holstein: ECM Yield - 1985-2023 - GAMM model summary without random effect terms.

Smooth Term Fixed Effect	Est.	SE	z	p
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multiFx1	0.638531	0.115151	5.55	\(< 1e-07\)
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primiFx1	0.559616	0.129725	4.31	\(< 1e-04\)
s(days_in_milk_):multiFx1	1.239	0.456686	2.71	0.0067
s(days_in_milk_):primiFx1	2.33168	0.535407	4.35	\(< 1e-04\)
Variance Component	Estimated \(\sigma\)
\(\sigma_\alpha\)	3.11752
\(\sigma_\iota\)	1.07133
\(\sigma_\phi\)	3.47683
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multi	2.15566
s(days_in_milk_):primi	6.54541
s(days_in_milk_):multi	8.73852
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primi	1.38212
Residual	4.16782

Table D.8: Holstein: ECM Yield - 1985-2023 - Mixed Model Summary - Smooth Terms and Random Effects.

Model Diagnostics

Figure D.7: Holstein: ECM Yield - 1985-2023 - Diagnostic Plot

THI Effect and Lactation Curve

Figure D.8: Holstein: ECM Yield - 1985 - 2023 - THI Effect and Lactation Curve

D.2.2: Split Period: Until 2010 - After 2010

D.2.2.1 Split Period: 1985 - 2010

Model Summary

A. parametric coefficients	Estimate	Std. Error	t-value	p-value
(Intercept)	19.5611	0.4528	43.2033	\(< 0.0001\)
parityprimiparous	-3.4047	0.0125	-272.5784	\(< 0.0001\)
year1986	0.1564	0.2983	0.5244	0.6000
year1987	-0.1604	0.3786	-0.4236	0.6718
year1988	-0.4125	0.4604	-0.8959	0.3703
year1989	0.2840	0.4787	0.5933	0.5530
year1990	0.8561	0.5110	1.6753	0.0939
year1991	1.2054	0.5295	2.2764	0.0228
year1992	1.5896	0.4714	3.3720	0.0007
year1993	1.7199	0.4841	3.5526	0.0004
year1994	1.5862	0.4844	3.2746	0.0011
year1995	1.9400	0.4862	3.9899	0.0001
year1996	2.3149	0.4891	4.7332	\(< 0.0001\)
year1997	2.8495	0.4910	5.8030	\(< 0.0001\)
year1998	3.4994	0.4911	7.1260	\(< 0.0001\)
year1999	3.4311	0.4857	7.0648	\(< 0.0001\)
year2000	3.4183	0.4792	7.1327	\(< 0.0001\)
year2001	3.8865	0.4810	8.0803	\(< 0.0001\)
year2002	3.9895	0.4914	8.1191	\(< 0.0001\)
year2003	4.4780	0.4786	9.3555	\(< 0.0001\)
year2004	5.1219	0.4755	10.7715	\(< 0.0001\)
year2005	5.7371	0.4721	12.1526	\(< 0.0001\)
year2006	5.8086	0.4726	12.2895	\(< 0.0001\)
year2007	5.7180	0.4751	12.0362	\(< 0.0001\)
year2008	6.2530	0.4793	13.0457	\(< 0.0001\)
year2009	6.9507	0.4640	14.9808	\(< 0.0001\)
year2010	7.7630	0.4885	15.8912	\(< 0.0001\)
B. smooth terms	edf	Ref.df	F-value	p-value
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):paritymultiparous	8.4826	8.4826	267.5958	\(< 0.0001\)
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):parityprimiparous	7.6228	7.6228	298.9671	\(< 0.0001\)
s(days_in_milk_t):paritymultiparous	13.4714	13.4714	151697.0514	\(< 0.0001\)
s(days_in_milk_t):parityprimiparous	12.5410	12.5410	17254.6016	\(< 0.0001\)

Table D.9: Holstein: ECM Yield - 1985-2010 - GAMM model summary without random effect terms.

Smooth Term Fixed Effect	Est.	SE	z	p
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multiFx1	0.4794	0.1132	4.23	\(< 1e-04\)
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primiFx1	0.4898	0.1339	3.66	0.0003
s(days_in_milk_):multiFx1	-1.1736	0.4499	-2.61	0.0091
s(days_in_milk_):primiFx1	0.3524	0.4318	0.82	0.4144
Variance Component	Estimated \(\sigma\)
\(\sigma_\alpha\)	2.9719
\(\sigma_\iota\)	1.0261
\(\sigma_\phi\)	3.0716
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multi	2.4372
s(days_in_milk_):primi	4.3089
s(days_in_milk_):multi	7.2579
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primi	1.8041
Residual	3.7828

Table D.10: Holstein: ECM Yield - 1985-2010 - Mixed Model Summary - Smooth Terms and Random Effects.

Model Diagnostics

Figure D.9: Holstein: ECM Yield - 1985-2010 - Diagnostic Plot

THI Effect and Lactation Curve

Figure D.10: Holstein: ECM Yield - 1985 - 2010 - THI Effect and Lactation Curve

D.2.2.2 Split Period: 2010 - 2023

Model Summary

A. parametric coefficients	Estimate	Std. Error	t-value	p-value
(Intercept)	26.0912	0.3371	77.3959	\(< 0.0001\)
parityprimiparous	-4.1684	0.0144	-289.2770	\(< 0.0001\)
year2012	-0.0036	0.4530	-0.0079	0.9937
year2013	-0.4704	0.4087	-1.1510	0.2497
year2014	-0.0259	0.4077	-0.0636	0.9493
year2015	0.3804	0.4236	0.8978	0.3693
year2016	0.7225	0.4482	1.6118	0.1070
year2017	1.0551	0.4375	2.4115	0.0159
year2018	1.7452	0.4307	4.0524	0.0001
year2019	1.9702	0.4251	4.6343	\(< 0.0001\)
year2020	2.6159	0.4280	6.1119	\(< 0.0001\)
year2021	2.8975	0.4212	6.8784	\(< 0.0001\)
year2022	2.6987	0.4087	6.6037	\(< 0.0001\)
year2023	3.2917	0.4105	8.0192	\(< 0.0001\)
B. smooth terms	edf	Ref.df	F-value	p-value
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):paritymultiparous	7.9522	7.9522	319.3654	\(< 0.0001\)
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):parityprimiparous	7.1992	7.1992	264.9658	\(< 0.0001\)
s(days_in_milk_t):paritymultiparous	13.6599	13.6599	103206.5817	\(< 0.0001\)
s(days_in_milk_t):parityprimiparous	12.7770	12.7770	7909.0701	\(< 0.0001\)

Table D.11: Holstein: ECM Yield - 2011-2023 - GAMM model summary without random effect terms.

Smooth Term Fixed Effect	Est.	SE	z	p
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multiFx1	0.6969	0.1034	6.74	\(< 1e-10\)
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primiFx1	0.6876	0.1398	4.92	\(< 1e-06\)
s(days_in_milk_):multiFx1	2.6534	0.4168	6.37	\(< 1e-09\)
s(days_in_milk_):primiFx1	2.1363	0.4968	4.30	\(< 1e-04\)
Variance Component	Estimated \(\sigma\)
\(\sigma_\alpha\)	3.1148
\(\sigma_\iota\)	1.2275
\(\sigma_\phi\)	4.1812
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multi	1.7213
s(days_in_milk_):primi	5.7506
s(days_in_milk_):multi	8.9112
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primi	1.7948
Residual	4.3794

Table D.12: Holstein: ECM Yield - 2011-2023 - Mixed Model Summary - Smooth Terms and Random Effects.

Model Diagnostics

Figure D.11: Holstein: ECM Yield - 2011 - 2023 - Diagnostic Plot

THI Effect and Lactation Curve

Figure D.12: Holstein: ECM Yield - 2011 - 2023 - THI Effect and Lactation Curve