D.10 ECM Yield

D.10 Original Braunvieh: ECM Yield

D.10.1: Full Period: 1982-2023

Model Summary

A. parametric coefficients	Estimate	Std. Error	t-value	p-value
(Intercept)	15.8947	0.4193	37.9121	\(< 0.0001\)
parityprimiparous	-3.0178	0.0093	-325.6942	\(< 0.0001\)
year1983	0.5663	0.2861	1.9794	0.0478
year1984	1.2563	0.3953	3.1781	0.0015
year1985	1.5213	0.4486	3.3913	0.0007
year1986	1.2508	0.4344	2.8793	0.0040
year1987	0.9772	0.4346	2.2487	0.0245
year1988	0.7522	0.4336	1.7348	0.0828
year1989	1.1497	0.4326	2.6574	0.0079
year1990	1.3966	0.4344	3.2152	0.0013
year1991	1.4858	0.4377	3.3948	0.0007
year1992	1.7120	0.4426	3.8681	0.0001
year1993	1.6722	0.4455	3.7537	0.0002
year1994	1.4916	0.4446	3.3549	0.0008
year1995	1.5158	0.4423	3.4268	0.0006
year1996	1.5117	0.4432	3.4106	0.0006
year1997	1.8394	0.4439	4.1439	\(< 0.0001\)
year1998	2.3000	0.4511	5.0982	\(< 0.0001\)
year1999	2.2123	0.4505	4.9107	\(< 0.0001\)
year2000	2.2083	0.4492	4.9165	\(< 0.0001\)
year2001	2.8655	0.4508	6.3568	\(< 0.0001\)
year2002	2.7206	0.4526	6.0112	\(< 0.0001\)
year2003	2.8360	0.4545	6.2393	\(< 0.0001\)
year2004	3.5798	0.4559	7.8523	\(< 0.0001\)
year2005	3.6846	0.4575	8.0532	\(< 0.0001\)
year2006	3.5993	0.4484	8.0271	\(< 0.0001\)
year2007	3.4139	0.4409	7.7426	\(< 0.0001\)
year2008	3.6631	0.4360	8.4016	\(< 0.0001\)
year2009	4.0687	0.4324	9.4088	\(< 0.0001\)
year2010	4.0491	0.4566	8.8685	\(< 0.0001\)
year2011	4.0704	0.4866	8.3654	\(< 0.0001\)
year2012	4.2539	0.4575	9.2983	\(< 0.0001\)
year2013	4.0249	0.4567	8.8127	\(< 0.0001\)
year2014	4.2470	0.4520	9.3966	\(< 0.0001\)
year2015	4.2237	0.4579	9.2233	\(< 0.0001\)
year2016	4.5528	0.4511	10.0922	\(< 0.0001\)
year2017	4.6712	0.4448	10.5015	\(< 0.0001\)
year2018	5.2439	0.4446	11.7950	\(< 0.0001\)
year2019	5.3966	0.4489	12.0229	\(< 0.0001\)
year2020	5.4795	0.4475	12.2453	\(< 0.0001\)
year2021	5.7850	0.4599	12.5794	\(< 0.0001\)
year2022	5.5303	0.4515	12.2476	\(< 0.0001\)
year2023	5.6858	0.4303	13.2131	\(< 0.0001\)
B. smooth terms	edf	Ref.df	F-value	p-value
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):paritymultiparous	8.3581	8.3581	214.1384	\(< 0.0001\)
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):parityprimiparous	6.9115	6.9115	55.6429	\(< 0.0001\)
s(days_in_milk_t):paritymultiparous	13.6123	13.6123	99250.0134	\(< 0.0001\)
s(days_in_milk_t):parityprimiparous	12.6659	12.6659	6766.6483	\(< 0.0001\)

Table D.55: Original Braunvieh: ECM Yield - 1982-2023 - GAMM model summary without random effect terms.

Smooth Term Fixed Effect	Est.	SE	z	p
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multiFx1	-0.3216	0.0774	-4.16	\(< 1e-04\)
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primiFx1	-0.2918	0.1245	-2.34	0.0191
s(days_in_milk_):multiFx1	0.2352	0.3329	0.71	0.4798
s(days_in_milk_):primiFx1	1.0344	0.5576	1.86	0.0636

Variance Component	Estimated \( \sigma \)
\(\sigma_\alpha\)	2.2962
\(\sigma_\iota\)	0.8772
\(\sigma_\phi\)	2.4244
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multi	1.6803
s(days_in_milk_):primi	5.8981
s(days_in_milk_):multi	6.6445
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primi	1.4496
Residual	2.9534

Table D.56: Original Braunvieh: ECM Yield - 1982-2023 - Mixed Model Summary - Smooth Terms and Random Effects.

Model Diagnostics

Figure D.55: Original Braunvieh: ECM Yield - 1982-2023 - Diagnostic Plot

THI Effect and Lactation Curve

Figure D.56: Original Braunvieh: ECM Yield - 1982 - 2023 - THI Effect and Lactation Curve

D.10.2: Split Period: Until 2010 - After 2010

D.10.2.1: Split Period: 1982 - 2010

Model Summary

A. parametric coefficients	Estimate	Std. Error	t-value	p-value
(Intercept)	15.7848	0.3067	51.4584	\(< 0.0001\)
parityprimiparous	-2.9174	0.0070	-417.3573	\(< 0.0001\)
year1983	0.7892	0.1983	3.9793	0.0001
year1984	1.4377	0.2480	5.7973	\(< 0.0001\)
year1985	1.6877	0.3220	5.2417	\(< 0.0001\)
year1986	1.4483	0.3141	4.6107	\(< 0.0001\)
year1987	1.1982	0.3142	3.8135	0.0001
year1988	0.9885	0.3149	3.1391	0.0017
year1989	1.4451	0.3158	4.5766	\(< 0.0001\)
year1990	1.6731	0.3146	5.3177	\(< 0.0001\)
year1991	1.7756	0.3167	5.6067	\(< 0.0001\)
year1992	2.0102	0.3191	6.3000	\(< 0.0001\)
year1993	1.9638	0.3171	6.1928	\(< 0.0001\)
year1994	1.7777	0.3178	5.5929	\(< 0.0001\)
year1995	1.7674	0.3216	5.4948	\(< 0.0001\)
year1996	1.8133	0.3296	5.5010	\(< 0.0001\)
year1997	2.1509	0.3291	6.5368	\(< 0.0001\)
year1998	2.6246	0.3306	7.9400	\(< 0.0001\)
year1999	2.6036	0.3326	7.8279	\(< 0.0001\)
year2000	2.5430	0.3251	7.8220	\(< 0.0001\)
year2001	3.1967	0.3200	9.9888	\(< 0.0001\)
year2002	3.1551	0.3198	9.8673	\(< 0.0001\)
year2003	3.3240	0.3205	10.3719	\(< 0.0001\)
year2004	4.0183	0.3274	12.2746	\(< 0.0001\)
year2005	4.0225	0.3287	12.2364	\(< 0.0001\)
year2006	3.9963	0.3313	12.0636	\(< 0.0001\)
year2007	3.9453	0.3296	11.9687	\(< 0.0001\)
year2008	4.2754	0.3341	12.7978	\(< 0.0001\)
year2009	4.7774	0.3118	15.3210	\(< 0.0001\)
year2010	4.8595	0.3156	15.3998	\(< 0.0001\)
B. smooth terms	edf	Ref.df	F-value	p-value
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):paritymultiparous	8.5846	8.5846	309.4526	\(< 0.0001\)
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):parityprimiparous	7.0346	7.0346	59.6072	\(< 0.0001\)
s(days_in_milk_t):paritymultiparous	13.7201	13.7201	157593.6335	\(< 0.0001\)
s(days_in_milk_t):parityprimiparous	12.8167	12.8167	9483.4131	\(< 0.0001\)

Table D.57: Original Braunvieh: ECM Yield - 1982-2010 - GAMM model summary without random effect terms.

Smooth Term Fixed Effect	Est.	SE	z	p
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multiFx1	0.2853	0.0617	4.63	\(< 1e-05\)
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primiFx1	0.1390	0.1034	1.34	0.1788
s(days_in_milk_):multiFx1	-0.8167	0.2614	-3.12	0.0018
s(days_in_milk_):primiFx1	0.4526	0.4988	0.91	0.3642

Variance Component	Estimated \( \sigma \)
\(\sigma_\alpha\)	2.1036
\(\sigma_\iota\)	0.8472
\(\sigma_\phi\)	2.3969
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multi	1.7271
s(days_in_milk_):primi	5.5845
s(days_in_milk_):multi	6.1963
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primi	1.3102
Residual	2.7254

Table D.58: Original Braunvieh: ECM Yield - 1982-2010 - Mixed Model Summary - Smooth Terms and Random Effects.

Model Diagnostics

Figure D.57: Original Braunvieh: ECM Yield - 1982-2010 - Diagnostic Plot

THI Effect and Lactation Curve

Figure D.58: Original Braunvieh: ECM Yield - 1982 - 2010 - THI Effect and Lactation Curve

D.10.2.2: Split Period: 2010 - 2023

Model Summary

A. parametric coefficients	Estimate	Std. Error	t-value	p-value
(Intercept)	19.5455	0.1369	142.7818	\(< 0.0001\)
parityprimiparous	-3.1985	0.0140	-229.2422	\(< 0.0001\)
year2012	0.2379	0.1405	1.6940	0.0903
year2013	0.0226	0.1452	0.1560	0.8760
year2014	0.3542	0.1507	2.3500	0.0188
year2015	0.3058	0.1471	2.0794	0.0376
year2016	0.5225	0.1557	3.3550	0.0008
year2017	0.6787	0.1586	4.2804	\(< 0.0001\)
year2018	1.3125	0.1506	8.7128	\(< 0.0001\)
year2019	1.4008	0.1414	9.9084	\(< 0.0001\)
year2020	1.5607	0.1607	9.7145	\(< 0.0001\)
year2021	1.7424	0.1523	11.4371	\(< 0.0001\)
year2022	1.3971	0.1530	9.1313	\(< 0.0001\)
year2023	1.5928	0.1365	11.6652	\(< 0.0001\)
B. smooth terms	edf	Ref.df	F-value	p-value
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):paritymultiparous	7.9847	7.9847	155.1733	\(< 0.0001\)
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):parityprimiparous	6.2505	6.2505	120.1621	\(< 0.0001\)
s(days_in_milk_t):paritymultiparous	13.5291	13.5291	75214.1566	\(< 0.0001\)
s(days_in_milk_t):parityprimiparous	12.7235	12.7235	6571.4484	\(< 0.0001\)

Table D.59: Original Braunvieh: ECM Yield - 2011-2023 - GAMM model summary without random effect terms.

Smooth Term Fixed Effect	Est.	SE	z	p
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multiFx1	0.2387	0.0884	2.70	0.0069
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primiFx1	0.4781	0.1054	4.54	\(< 1e-05\)
s(days_in_milk_):multiFx1	0.1442	0.3475	0.41	0.6781
s(days_in_milk_):primiFx1	1.4020	0.5138	2.73	0.0064

Variance Component	Estimated \( \sigma \)
\(\sigma_\alpha\)	2.4364
\(\sigma_\iota\)	1.1982
\(\sigma_\phi\)	2.9291
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multi	1.5377
s(days_in_milk_):primi	5.7883
s(days_in_milk_):multi	6.5645
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primi	1.0934
Residual	3.4295

Table D.60: Original Braunvieh: ECM Yield - 2011-2023 - Mixed Model Summary - Smooth Terms and Random Effects.

Model Diagnostics

Figure D.59: Original Braunvieh: ECM Yield - 2011 - 2023 - Diagnostic Plot

THI Effect and Lactation Curve

Figure D.60: Original Braunvieh: ECM Yield - 2011 - 2023 - THI Effect and Lactation Curve