D.9 Milk Yield

D.9 Original Braunvieh: Milk Yield

D.9.1: Full Period: 1982-2023

Model Summary

A. parametric coefficients	Estimate	Std. Error	t-value	p-value
(Intercept)	14.6852	0.3830	38.3445	\(< 0.0001\)
parityprimiparous	-2.8286	0.0084	-336.8236	\(< 0.0001\)
year1983	0.6430	0.2594	2.4790	\(0.0132\)
year1984	1.3296	0.3594	3.6993	\(0.0002\)
year1985	1.5697	0.4102	3.8268	\(0.0001\)
year1986	1.3617	0.3971	3.4293	\(0.0006\)
year1987	1.1349	0.3972	2.8571	\(0.0043\)
year1988	1.0051	0.3962	2.5371	\(0.0112\)
year1989	1.3474	0.3953	3.4086	\(0.0007\)
year1990	1.5443	0.3969	3.8914	\(0.0001\)
year1991	1.6956	0.3999	4.2405	\(< 0.0001\)
year1992	1.8865	0.4044	4.6653	\(< 0.0001\)
year1993	1.8705	0.4070	4.5959	\(< 0.0001\)
year1994	1.9129	0.4062	4.7093	\(< 0.0001\)
year1995	1.9594	0.4042	4.8482	\(< 0.0001\)
year1996	1.9151	0.4050	4.7290	\(< 0.0001\)
year1997	2.2722	0.4056	5.6027	\(< 0.0001\)
year1998	2.6225	0.4121	6.3631	\(< 0.0001\)
year1999	2.6031	0.4116	6.3245	\(< 0.0001\)
year2000	2.7243	0.4104	6.6383	\(< 0.0001\)
year2001	3.1854	0.4118	7.7345	\(< 0.0001\)
year2002	3.1050	0.4136	7.5078	\(< 0.0001\)
year2003	3.2604	0.4154	7.8494	\(< 0.0001\)
year2004	3.9208	0.4166	9.4114	\(< 0.0001\)
year2005	3.9771	0.4180	9.5156	\(< 0.0001\)
year2006	3.9585	0.4097	9.6610	\(< 0.0001\)
year2007	3.8381	0.4029	9.5267	\(< 0.0001\)
year2008	3.9184	0.3984	9.8362	\(< 0.0001\)
year2009	4.3397	0.3951	10.9831	\(< 0.0001\)
year2010	4.3655	0.4169	10.4716	\(< 0.0001\)
year2011	4.3907	0.4447	9.8727	\(< 0.0001\)
year2012	4.4644	0.4182	10.6752	\(< 0.0001\)
year2013	4.2845	0.4174	10.2637	\(< 0.0001\)
year2014	4.5024	0.4132	10.8971	\(< 0.0001\)
year2015	4.4539	0.4185	10.6419	\(< 0.0001\)
year2016	4.7123	0.4123	11.4289	\(< 0.0001\)
year2017	4.8402	0.4065	11.9066	\(< 0.0001\)
year2018	5.3225	0.4063	13.0998	\(< 0.0001\)
year2019	5.4832	0.4101	13.3688	\(< 0.0001\)
year2020	5.5730	0.4091	13.6236	\(< 0.0001\)
year2021	5.7938	0.4204	13.7827	\(< 0.0001\)
year2022	5.6597	0.4127	13.7129	\(< 0.0001\)
year2023	5.7643	0.3932	14.6596	\(< 0.0001\)

B. smooth terms	edf	Ref.df	F-value	p-value
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):paritymultiparous	8.2023	8.2023	499.7521	\(< 0.0001\)
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):parityprimiparous	6.4380	6.4380	21.1385	\(< 0.0001\)
s(days_in_milk_t):paritymultiparous	14.6571	14.6571	124999.1547	\(< 0.0001\)
s(days_in_milk_t):parityprimiparous	13.7950	13.7950	10008.9324	\(< 0.0001\)

Table D.49: Original Braunvieh: Milk Yield - 1982-2023 - GAMM model summary without random effect terms.

Smooth Term Fixed Effect	Est.	SE	z	p
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multiFx1	-0.1305	0.0684	-1.91	\(0.0563\)
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primiFx1	-0.1859	0.1026	-1.81	\(0.0699\)
s(days_in_milk_):multiFx1	2.6617	0.3795	7.01	\(< 1e-11\)
s(days_in_milk_):primiFx1	2.6704	0.6406	4.17	\(< 1e-04\)

Variance Component	Estimated \(\sigma\)
\(\sigma_\alpha\)	2.2231
\(\sigma_\iota\)	0.7988
\(\sigma_\phi\)	2.2162
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multi	1.3315
s(days_in_milk_):primi	7.6667
s(days_in_milk_):multi	8.4641
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primi	1.0707
Residual	2.6754

Table D.50: Original Braunvieh: Milk Yield - 1982-2023 - Mixed Model Summary - Smooth Terms and Random Effects.

Model Diagnostics

Figure D.49: Original Braunvieh: Milk Yield - 1982-2023 - Diagnostic Plot

THI Effect and Lactation Curve

Figure D.50: Original Braunvieh: Milk Yield - 1982 - 2023 - THI Effect and Lactation Curve

D.9.2: Split Period: Until 2010 - After 2010

D.9.2.1: Split Period: 1982 - 2010

Model Summary

A. parametric coefficients	Estimate	Std. Error	t-value	p-value
(Intercept)	15.0057	0.3198	46.9296	\(< 0.0001\)
parityprimiparous	-2.7417	0.0075	-364.2785	\(< 0.0001\)
year1983	0.5319	0.1721	3.0909	\(0.0020\)
year1984	1.2212	0.2208	5.5306	\(< 0.0001\)
year1985	1.4377	0.3329	4.3192	\(< 0.0001\)
year1986	1.2237	0.3282	3.7284	\(0.0002\)
year1987	0.9991	0.3283	3.0434	\(0.0023\)
year1988	0.8693	0.3296	2.6375	\(0.0084\)
year1989	1.2663	0.3321	3.8124	\(0.0001\)
year1990	1.4339	0.3365	4.2620	\(< 0.0001\)
year1991	1.5848	0.3338	4.7480	\(< 0.0001\)
year1992	1.8142	0.3368	5.3870	\(< 0.0001\)
year1993	1.7912	0.3345	5.3554	\(< 0.0001\)
year1994	1.8160	0.3363	5.3998	\(< 0.0001\)
year1995	1.8604	0.3401	5.4700	\(< 0.0001\)
year1996	1.8582	0.3422	5.4305	\(< 0.0001\)
year1997	2.2074	0.3438	6.4205	\(< 0.0001\)
year1998	2.5319	0.3440	7.3593	\(< 0.0001\)
year1999	2.5909	0.3429	7.5555	\(< 0.0001\)
year2000	2.6876	0.3428	7.8407	\(< 0.0001\)
year2001	3.1647	0.3440	9.1995	\(< 0.0001\)
year2002	3.1748	0.3440	9.2291	\(< 0.0001\)
year2003	3.4029	0.3441	9.8881	\(< 0.0001\)
year2004	4.0428	0.3451	11.7149	\(< 0.0001\)
year2005	3.9998	0.3459	11.5618	\(< 0.0001\)
year2006	4.0530	0.3459	11.7161	\(< 0.0001\)
year2007	4.0568	0.3274	12.3917	\(< 0.0001\)
year2008	4.2064	0.3305	12.7275	\(< 0.0001\)
year2009	4.7048	0.3385	13.8992	\(< 0.0001\)
year2010	4.7805	0.3304	14.4669	\(< 0.0001\)

B. smooth terms	edf	Ref.df	F-value	p-value
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):paritymultiparous	8.3658	8.3658	547.3637	\(< 0.0001\)
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):parityprimiparous	6.3881	6.3881	18.3421	\(< 0.0001\)
s(days_in_milk_t):paritymultiparous	14.6588	14.6588	138414.9409	\(< 0.0001\)
s(days_in_milk_t):parityprimiparous	13.5087	13.5087	9624.2220	\(< 0.0001\)

Table D.51: Original Braunvieh: Milk Yield - 1982-2010 - GAMM model summary without random effect terms.

Smooth Term Fixed Effect	Est.	SE	z	p
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multiFx1	0.1257	0.0623	2.02	\(0.0435\)
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primiFx1	0.1133	0.0973	1.16	\(0.2441\)
s(days_in_milk_):multiFx1	1.6964	0.3555	4.77	\(< 1e-05\)
s(days_in_milk_):primiFx1	1.7743	0.6100	2.91	\(0.0036\)

Variance Component	Estimated \(\sigma\)
\(\sigma_\alpha\)	2.0336
\(\sigma_\iota\)	0.7981
\(\sigma_\phi\)	2.1854
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multi	1.3954
s(days_in_milk_):primi	6.5182
s(days_in_milk_):multi	7.8722
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primi	1.0305
Residual	2.4831

Table D.52: Original Braunvieh: Milk Yield - 1982-2010 - Mixed Model Summary - Smooth Terms and Random Effects.

Model Diagnostics

Figure D.51: Original Braunvieh: Milk Yield - 1982-2010 - Diagnostic Plot

THI Effect and Lactation Curve

Figure D.52: Original Braunvieh: Milk Yield - 1982 - 2010 - THI Effect and Lactation Curve

D.9.2.2: Split Period: 2010 - 2023

Model Summary

A. parametric coefficients	Estimate	Std. Error	t-value	p-value
(Intercept)	17.9663	0.1239	144.9573	\(< 0.0001\)
parityprimiparous	-2.8764	0.0124	-231.5884	\(< 0.0001\)
year2012	0.1449	0.1266	1.1447	\(0.2523\)
year2013	0.0303	0.1310	0.2309	\(0.8174\)
year2014	0.3805	0.1363	2.7924	\(0.0052\)
year2015	0.3500	0.1331	2.6292	\(0.0086\)
year2016	0.5339	0.1412	3.7823	\(0.0002\)
year2017	0.7371	0.1440	5.1184	\(< 0.0001\)
year2018	1.3158	0.1364	9.6455	\(< 0.0001\)
year2019	1.4358	0.1278	11.2335	\(< 0.0001\)
year2020	1.6108	0.1456	11.0653	\(< 0.0001\)
year2021	1.7594	0.1381	12.7388	\(< 0.0001\)
year2022	1.5487	0.1387	11.1677	\(< 0.0001\)
year2023	1.7522	0.1237	14.1632	\(< 0.0001\)

B. smooth terms	edf	Ref.df	F-value	p-value
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):paritymultiparous	8.1325	8.1325	158.8789	\(< 0.0001\)
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):parityprimiparous	5.8676	5.8676	31.1287	\(< 0.0001\)
s(days_in_milk_t):paritymultiparous	14.6080	14.6080	102220.3143	\(< 0.0001\)
s(days_in_milk_t):parityprimiparous	13.8345	13.8345	10900.9324	\(< 0.0001\)

Table D.53: Original Braunvieh: Milk Yield - 2011-2023 - GAMM model summary without random effect terms.

Smooth Term Fixed Effect	Est.	SE	z	p
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multiFx1	0.1512	0.0805	1.88	\(0.0603\)
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primiFx1	0.3145	0.0862	3.65	\(0.0003\)
s(days_in_milk_):multiFx1	2.6245	0.3882	6.76	\(< 1e-10\)
s(days_in_milk_):primiFx1	2.8048	0.5719	4.90	\(< 1e-06\)

Variance Component	Estimated \(\sigma\)
\(\sigma_\alpha\)	2.4361
\(\sigma_\iota\)	1.0490
\(\sigma_\phi\)	2.6129
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multi	1.5158
s(days_in_milk_):primi	7.2800
s(days_in_milk_):multi	8.4933
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primi	0.8292
Residual	3.0456

Table D.54: Original Braunvieh: Milk Yield - 2011-2023 - Mixed Model Summary - Smooth Terms and Random Effects.

Model Diagnostics

Figure D.53: Original Braunvieh: Milk Yield - 2011-2023 - Diagnostic Plot

THI Effect and Lactation Curve

Figure D.54: Original Braunvieh: Milk Yield - 2011 - 2023 - THI Effect and Lactation Curve