D.8 ECM Yield

D.8 Simmental: ECM Yield

D.8.1: Full Period: 1984-2023

Model Summary

A. parametric coefficients	Estimate	Std. Error	t-value	p-value
(Intercept)	17.3463	0.4168	41.6191	\(< 0.0001\)
parityprimiparous	-2.8031	0.0109	-256.6450	\(< 0.0001\)
year1985	1.1002	0.3206	3.4314	0.0006
year1986	0.8431	0.4286	1.9673	0.0492
year1987	0.5448	0.4390	1.2409	0.2146
year1988	0.0621	0.4546	0.1367	0.8913
year1989	0.6395	0.4445	1.4387	0.1502
year1990	1.0405	0.4480	2.3225	0.0202
year1991	1.3119	0.4488	2.9232	0.0035
year1992	1.6163	0.4738	3.4113	0.0006
year1993	1.3841	0.4483	3.0874	0.0020
year1994	1.0855	0.4495	2.4146	0.0158
year1995	1.2936	0.4517	2.8636	0.0042
year1996	1.2306	0.4800	2.5636	0.0104
year1997	1.7871	0.4747	3.7650	0.0002
year1998	2.2238	0.4596	4.8381	\(< 0.0001\)
year1999	2.2729	0.4546	4.9995	\(< 0.0001\)
year2000	2.0493	0.4490	4.5637	\(< 0.0001\)
year2001	2.1391	0.4477	4.7782	\(< 0.0001\)
year2002	1.8902	0.4498	4.2022	\(< 0.0001\)
year2003	2.0632	0.4502	4.5826	\(< 0.0001\)
year2004	2.9511	0.4601	6.4139	\(< 0.0001\)
year2005	3.1733	0.4511	7.0352	\(< 0.0001\)
year2006	3.2050	0.4477	7.1595	\(< 0.0001\)
year2007	2.8582	0.4471	6.3929	\(< 0.0001\)
year2008	3.1862	0.4459	7.1458	\(< 0.0001\)
year2009	3.4087	0.4450	7.6596	\(< 0.0001\)
year2010	3.8999	0.4458	8.7483	\(< 0.0001\)
year2011	3.6452	0.4465	8.1632	\(< 0.0001\)
year2012	3.8669	0.4414	8.7608	\(< 0.0001\)
year2013	3.7437	0.4470	8.3750	\(< 0.0001\)
year2014	3.8601	0.4543	8.4967	\(< 0.0001\)
year2015	3.6287	0.4552	7.9723	\(< 0.0001\)
year2016	4.2878	0.4571	9.3804	\(< 0.0001\)
year2017	4.1688	0.4501	9.2620	\(< 0.0001\)
year2018	4.7404	0.4503	10.5272	\(< 0.0001\)
year2019	4.7584	0.4502	10.5698	\(< 0.0001\)
year2020	4.9984	0.4521	11.0565	\(< 0.0001\)
year2021	5.3068	0.4530	11.7150	\(< 0.0001\)
year2022	4.9208	0.4417	11.1416	\(< 0.0001\)
year2023	5.2629	0.4324	12.1704	\(< 0.0001\)
B. smooth terms	edf	Ref.df	F-value	p-value
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):paritymultiparous	8.5091	8.5091	334.0726	\(< 0.0001\)
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):parityprimiparous	7.5562	7.5562	92.4732	\(< 0.0001\)
s(days_in_milk_t):paritymultiparous	14.2496	14.2496	88397.0602	\(< 0.0001\)
s(days_in_milk_t):parityprimiparous	12.7367	12.7367	9271.9910	\(< 0.0001\)

Table D.43: Simmental: ECM Yield - 1984-2023 - GAMM model summary without random effect terms.

Smooth Term Fixed Effect	Est.	SE	z	p
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multiFx1	0.5650	0.0830	6.81	\(< 1e-10\)
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primiFx1	0.4708	0.1217	3.87	0.0001
s(days_in_milk_):multiFx1	-0.0173	0.5234	-0.03	0.9736
s(days_in_milk_):primiFx1	0.3431	0.5953	0.58	0.5644
Variance Component	Estimated \(\sigma\)
\(\sigma_\alpha\)	2.3975
\(\sigma_\iota\)	0.9848
\(\sigma_\phi\)	2.5425
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multi	2.0979
s(days_in_milk_):primi	5.1025
s(days_in_milk_):multi	7.8374
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primi	1.7997
Residual	3.0088

Table D.44: Simmental: ECM Yield - 1984-2023 - Mixed Model Summary - Smooth Terms and Random Effects.

Model Diagnostics

Figure D.43: Simmental: ECM Yield - 1984-2023 - Diagnostic Plot

THI Effect and Lactation Curve

Figure D.44: Simmental: ECM Yield - 1984 - 2023 - THI Effect and Lactation Curve

D.8.2: Split Period: Until 2010 - After 2010

D.8.2.1: Split Period: 1984 - 2010

Model Summary

A. parametric coefficients	Estimate	Std. Error	t-value	p-value
(Intercept)	17.6518	0.3356	52.6054	\(< 0.0001\)
parityprimiparous	-2.7015	0.0095	-285.4638	\(< 0.0001\)
year1985	0.7449	0.2830	2.6323	0.0085
year1986	0.5669	0.3411	1.6621	0.0965
year1987	0.2759	0.3455	0.7984	0.4247
year1988	-0.1349	0.3458	-0.3900	0.6965
year1989	0.4567	0.3473	1.3150	0.1885
year1990	0.8247	0.3452	2.3890	0.0169
year1991	1.1108	0.3452	3.2175	0.0013
year1992	1.4253	0.3471	4.1061	\(< 0.0001\)
year1993	1.1540	0.3502	3.2955	0.0010
year1994	0.8854	0.3472	2.5503	0.0108
year1995	1.1153	0.3486	3.1997	0.0014
year1996	1.0683	0.3510	3.0435	0.0023
year1997	1.6587	0.3518	4.7155	\(< 0.0001\)
year1998	2.0221	0.3516	5.7505	\(< 0.0001\)
year1999	2.2191	0.3543	6.2638	\(< 0.0001\)
year2000	2.0358	0.3583	5.6818	\(< 0.0001\)
year2001	2.1613	0.3604	5.9976	\(< 0.0001\)
year2002	1.8805	0.3652	5.1493	\(< 0.0001\)
year2003	1.9896	0.3643	5.4613	\(< 0.0001\)
year2004	2.9060	0.3691	7.8728	\(< 0.0001\)
year2005	3.1763	0.3692	8.6022	\(< 0.0001\)
year2006	3.1924	0.3586	8.9022	\(< 0.0001\)
year2007	2.8135	0.3422	8.2225	\(< 0.0001\)
year2008	3.1845	0.3442	9.2522	\(< 0.0001\)
year2009	3.5973	0.3447	10.4365	\(< 0.0001\)
year2010	4.1283	0.3976	10.3834	\(< 0.0001\)
B. smooth terms	edf	Ref.df	F-value	p-value
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):paritymultiparous	8.4730	8.4730	373.7582	\(< 0.0001\)
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):parityprimiparous	6.8747	6.8747	135.1691	\(< 0.0001\)
s(days_in_milk_t):paritymultiparous	13.4789	13.4789	140715.0549	\(< 0.0001\)
s(days_in_milk_t):parityprimiparous	12.2782	12.2782	13970.4465	\(< 0.0001\)

Table D.45: Simmental: ECM Yield - 1984-2010 - GAMM model summary without random effect terms.

Smooth Term Fixed Effect	Est.	SE	z	p
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multiFx1	0.4424	0.0690	6.41	\(< 1e-09\)
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primiFx1	0.3094	0.0905	3.42	0.0006
s(days_in_milk_):multiFx1	-1.2407	0.3672	-3.38	0.0007
s(days_in_milk_):primiFx1	0.1035	0.4848	0.21	0.8310
Variance Component	Estimated \(\sigma\)
\(\sigma_\alpha\)	2.3271
\(\sigma_\iota\)	0.9552
\(\sigma_\phi\)	2.4147
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multi	1.7481
s(days_in_milk_):primi	4.2357
s(days_in_milk_):multi	6.0551
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primi	1.1364
Residual	2.8692

Table D.46: Simmental: ECM Yield - 1984-2010 - Mixed Model Summary - Smooth Terms and Random Effects.

Model Diagnostics

Figure D.45: Simmental: ECM Yield - 1984-2010 - Diagnostic Plot

THI Effect and Lactation Curve

Figure D.46: Simmental: ECM Yield - 1984 - 2010 - THI Effect and Lactation Curve

D.8.2.2: Split Period: 2010 - 2023

Model Summary

A. parametric coefficients	Estimate	Std. Error	t-value	p-value
(Intercept)	19.8809	0.0919	216.2647	\(< 0.0001\)
parityprimiparous	-2.9225	0.0124	-235.8837	\(< 0.0001\)
year2012	0.1301	0.0669	1.9433	0.0520
year2013	0.0432	0.1073	0.4030	0.6869
year2014	0.2435	0.1193	2.0409	0.0413
year2015	0.1024	0.0930	1.1009	0.2709
year2016	0.7162	0.1021	7.0183	\(< 0.0001\)
year2017	0.5992	0.1019	5.8777	\(< 0.0001\)
year2018	1.1769	0.1088	10.8135	\(< 0.0001\)
year2019	1.1368	0.1058	10.7401	\(< 0.0001\)
year2020	1.3493	0.1109	12.1624	\(< 0.0001\)
year2021	1.5988	0.1105	14.4715	\(< 0.0001\)
year2022	1.2219	0.1050	11.6420	\(< 0.0001\)
year2023	1.5644	0.0890	17.5860	\(< 0.0001\)
B. smooth terms	edf	Ref.df	F-value	p-value
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):paritymultiparous	8.3017	8.3017	136.1717	\(< 0.0001\)
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):parityprimiparous	6.2560	6.2560	86.5741	\(< 0.0001\)
s(days_in_milk_t):paritymultiparous	13.1598	13.1598	77606.0625	\(< 0.0001\)
s(days_in_milk_t):parityprimiparous	12.0942	12.0942	8162.0032	\(< 0.0001\)

Table D.47: Simmental: ECM Yield - 2011-2023 - GAMM model summary without random effect terms.

Smooth Term Fixed Effect	Est.	SE	z	p
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multiFx1	0.1768	0.0828	2.13	0.0328
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primiFx1	0.2455	0.0968	2.53	0.0112
s(days_in_milk_):multiFx1	-1.7511	0.4264	-4.11	\(< 1e-04\)
s(days_in_milk_):primiFx1	0.3436	0.5476	0.63	0.5304
Variance Component	Estimated \(\sigma\)
\(\sigma_\alpha\)	2.3352
\(\sigma_\iota\)	1.2121
\(\sigma_\phi\)	2.8059
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multi	1.6052
s(days_in_milk_):primi	4.8426
s(days_in_milk_):multi	5.7477
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primi	0.9148
Residual	3.3644

Table D.48: Simmental: ECM Yield - 2011-2023 - Mixed Model Summary - Smooth Terms and Random Effects.

Model Diagnostics

Figure D.47: Simmental: ECM Yield - 2011 - 2023 - Diagnostic Plot

THI Effect and Lactation Curve

Figure D.48: Simmental: ECM Yield - 2011 - 2023 - THI Effect and Lactation Curve