D.7 Milk Yield

D.7 Simmental: Milk Yield

D.7.1: Full Period: 1984-2023

Model Summary

A. parametric coefficients	Estimate	Std. Error	t-value	p-value
(Intercept)	15.9675	0.3774	42.3090	\(< 0.0001\)
parityprimiparous	-2.6079	0.0098	-266.9804	\(< 0.0001\)
year1984	0.9203	0.2871	3.2051	0.0014
year1986	0.6316	0.3878	1.6285	0.1034
year1987	0.4807	0.3976	1.2091	0.2266
year1988	0.1430	0.4124	0.3469	0.7287
year1989	0.6980	0.4029	1.7322	0.0832
year1990	1.0472	0.4058	2.5805	0.0099
year1991	1.2842	0.4066	3.1584	0.0016
year1992	1.4749	0.4292	3.4363	0.0006
year1993	1.3251	0.4063	3.2615	0.0011
year1994	1.2250	0.4074	3.0071	0.0026
year1995	1.2876	0.4092	3.1463	0.0017
year1996	1.2205	0.4347	2.8075	0.0050
year1997	1.6763	0.4297	3.9011	0.0001
year1998	2.1129	0.4163	5.0758	\(< 0.0001\)
year1999	2.3006	0.4118	5.5872	\(< 0.0001\)
year2000	2.2606	0.4068	5.5575	\(< 0.0001\)
year2001	2.3638	0.4055	5.8286	\(< 0.0001\)
year2002	2.2778	0.4074	5.5905	\(< 0.0001\)
year2003	2.4894	0.4078	6.1046	\(< 0.0001\)
year2004	3.2022	0.4165	7.6879	\(< 0.0001\)
year2005	3.3627	0.4085	8.2309	\(< 0.0001\)
year2006	3.4238	0.4055	8.4429	\(< 0.0001\)
year2007	3.1380	0.4050	7.7479	\(< 0.0001\)
year2008	3.3498	0.4039	8.2927	\(< 0.0001\)
year2009	3.5657	0.4032	8.8433	\(< 0.0001\)
year2010	4.0337	0.4039	9.9874	\(< 0.0001\)
year2011	3.8485	0.4045	9.5134	\(< 0.0001\)
year2012	3.9868	0.3999	9.9703	\(< 0.0001\)
year2013	3.8586	0.4048	9.5316	\(< 0.0001\)
year2014	4.0453	0.4114	9.8322	\(< 0.0001\)
year2015	3.8068	0.4122	9.2351	\(< 0.0001\)
year2016	4.3075	0.4139	10.4076	\(< 0.0001\)
year2017	4.2544	0.4077	10.4348	\(< 0.0001\)
year2018	4.7025	0.4079	11.5286	\(< 0.0001\)
year2019	4.7448	0.4078	11.6354	\(< 0.0001\)
year2020	4.9568	0.4094	12.1061	\(< 0.0001\)
year2021	5.1777	0.4102	12.6215	\(< 0.0001\)
year2022	4.8714	0.4000	12.1801	\(< 0.0001\)
year2023	5.1469	0.3917	13.1384	\(< 0.0001\)

B. smooth terms	edf	Ref.df	F-value	p-value
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):paritymultiparous	8.5481	8.5481	861.5266	\(< 0.0001\)
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):parityprimiparous	7.7193	7.7193	32.7458	\(< 0.0001\)
s(days_in_milk_t):paritymultiparous	14.3882	14.3882	116548.6940	\(< 0.0001\)
s(days_in_milk_t):parityprimiparous	13.1806	13.1806	13312.7922	\(< 0.0001\)

Table D.37: Simmental: Milk Yield - 1984-2023 - GAMM model summary without random effect terms.

Smooth Term Fixed Effect	Est.	SE	z	p
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multiFx1	0.4066	0.0746	5.45	\(< 1e-07\)
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primiFx1	0.3954	0.1118	3.54	0.0004
s(days_in_milk_):multiFx1	1.1054	0.4915	2.25	0.0245
s(days_in_milk_):primiFx1	0.9155	0.6116	1.50	0.1344

Variance Component	Estimated \( \sigma \)
\(\sigma_\alpha\)	2.3244
\(\sigma_\iota\)	0.9308
\(\sigma_\phi\)	2.3149
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multi	1.9660
s(days_in_milk_):primi	5.8293
s(days_in_milk_):multi	8.1220
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primi	1.7588
Residual	2.6876

Table D.38: Simmental: Milk Yield - 1984-2023 - Mixed Model Summary - Smooth Terms and Random Effects.

Model Diagnostics

Figure D.37: Simmental: Milk Yield - 1984-2023 - Diagnostic Plot

THI Effect and Lactation Curve

Figure D.38: Simmental: Milk Yield - 1984 - 2023 - THI Effect and Lactation Curve

D.7.2: Split Period: Until 2010 - After 2010

D.7.2.1: Split Period: 1984 - 2010

Model Summary

A. parametric coefficients	Estimate	Std. Error	t-value	p-value
(Intercept)	15.9784	0.4258	37.5277	\(< 0.0001\)
parityprimiparous	-2.5042	0.0100	-249.9160	\(< 0.0001\)
year1984	0.9215	0.3893	2.3672	0.0179
year1986	0.6345	0.4368	1.4527	0.1463
year1987	0.4655	0.4397	1.0586	0.2898
year1988	0.1797	0.4414	0.4071	0.6839
year1989	0.7303	0.4434	1.6470	0.0995
year1990	1.1013	0.4387	2.5105	0.0121
year1991	1.3407	0.4369	3.0687	0.0022
year1992	1.5351	0.4371	3.5119	0.0004
year1993	1.3704	0.4392	3.1204	0.0018
year1994	1.3045	0.4384	2.9758	0.0029
year1995	1.4003	0.4389	3.1903	0.0014
year1996	1.3452	0.4413	3.0480	0.0023
year1997	1.8067	0.4469	4.0431	0.0001
year1998	2.2060	0.4443	4.9652	\(< 0.0001\)
year1999	2.5341	0.4414	5.7412	\(< 0.0001\)
year2000	2.5448	0.4390	5.7967	\(< 0.0001\)
year2001	2.6946	0.4418	6.0994	\(< 0.0001\)
year2002	2.6384	0.4433	5.9518	\(< 0.0001\)
year2003	2.8456	0.4433	6.4194	\(< 0.0001\)
year2004	3.5668	0.4430	8.0522	\(< 0.0001\)
year2005	3.7954	0.4439	8.5501	\(< 0.0001\)
year2006	3.8476	0.4474	8.6001	\(< 0.0001\)
year2007	3.5988	0.4460	8.0694	\(< 0.0001\)
year2008	3.8797	0.4455	8.7077	\(< 0.0001\)
year2009	4.2752	0.4362	9.7998	\(< 0.0001\)
year2010	4.7705	0.4345	10.9791	\(< 0.0001\)

B. smooth terms	edf	Ref.df	F-value	p-value
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):paritymultiparous	8.4698	8.4698	882.5620	\(< 0.0001\)
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):parityprimiparous	6.9972	6.9972	21.0979	\(< 0.0001\)
s(days_in_milk_t):paritymultiparous	14.2216	14.2216	126171.7037	\(< 0.0001\)
s(days_in_milk_t):parityprimiparous	13.1489	13.1489	13920.0800	\(< 0.0001\)

Table D.39: Simmental: Milk Yield - 1984-2010 - GAMM model summary without random effect terms.

Smooth Term Fixed Effect	Est.	SE	z	p
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multiFx1	0.2377	0.0708	3.36	0.0008
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primiFx1	0.2580	0.0954	2.70	0.0068
s(days_in_milk_):multiFx1	0.5757	0.4440	1.30	0.1948
s(days_in_milk_):primiFx1	0.9909	0.6147	1.61	0.1070

Variance Component	Estimated \( \sigma \)
\(\sigma_\alpha\)	2.2821
\(\sigma_\iota\)	0.9230
\(\sigma_\phi\)	2.1943
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multi	1.6772
s(days_in_milk_):primi	5.6179
s(days_in_milk_):multi	6.4897
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primi	1.1494
Residual	2.5693

Table D.40: Simmental: Milk Yield - 1984-2010 - Mixed Model Summary - Smooth Terms and Random Effects.

Model Diagnostics

Figure D.39: Simmental: Milk Yield - 1984-2010 - Diagnostic Plot

THI Effect and Lactation Curve

Figure D.40: Simmental: Milk Yield - 1984 - 2010 - THI Effect and Lactation Curve

D.7.2.2: Split Period: 2010 - 2023

Model Summary

A. parametric coefficients	Estimate	Std. Error	t-value	p-value
(Intercept)	18.3596	0.0826	222.1525	\(< 0.0001\)
parityprimiparous	-2.6921	0.0109	-246.6978	\(< 0.0001\)
year2012	0.0700	0.0591	1.1836	0.2366
year2013	0.0164	0.0958	0.1710	0.8642
year2014	0.2385	0.1073	2.2238	0.0262
year2015	0.1254	0.0839	1.4934	0.1353
year2016	0.6132	0.0918	6.6825	\(< 0.0001\)
year2017	0.6244	0.0918	6.8011	\(< 0.0001\)
year2018	1.1168	0.0980	11.3952	\(< 0.0001\)
year2019	1.1127	0.0955	11.6544	\(< 0.0001\)
year2020	1.3047	0.1000	13.0527	\(< 0.0001\)
year2021	1.4950	0.0997	14.9930	\(< 0.0001\)
year2022	1.1976	0.0945	12.6703	\(< 0.0001\)
year2023	1.4872	0.0802	18.5463	\(< 0.0001\)

B. smooth terms	edf	Ref.df	F-value	p-value
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):paritymultiparous	8.3541	8.3541	391.5958	\(< 0.0001\)
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):parityprimiparous	6.0274	6.0274	22.5263	\(< 0.0001\)
s(days_in_milk_t):paritymultiparous	14.3595	14.3595	100520.4244	\(< 0.0001\)
s(days_in_milk_t):parityprimiparous	13.4730	13.4730	11749.9799	\(< 0.0001\)

Table D.41: Simmental: Milk Yield - 2011-2023 - GAMM model summary without random effect terms.

Smooth Term Fixed Effect	Est.	SE	z	p
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multiFx1	0.0770	0.0733	1.05	0.2940
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primiFx1	0.1591	0.0814	1.95	0.0508
s(days_in_milk_):multiFx1	1.3572	0.4931	2.75	0.0059
s(days_in_milk_):primiFx1	2.1270	0.6593	3.23	0.0013

Variance Component	Estimated \( \sigma \)
\(\sigma_\alpha\)	2.3114
\(\sigma_\iota\)	1.1371
\(\sigma_\phi\)	2.4668
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):multi	1.4788
s(days_in_milk_):primi	7.0534
s(days_in_milk_):multi	8.1063
s(thi_mean_t0_3d):primi	0.7316
Residual	2.9532

Table D.42: Simmental: Milk Yield - 2011-2023 - Mixed Model Summary - Smooth Terms and Random Effects.

Model Diagnostics

Figure D.41: Simmental: Milk Yield - 2011-2023 - Diagnostic Plot

THI Effect and Lactation Curve

Figure D.42: Simmental: Milk Yield - 2011 - 2023 - THI Effect and Lactation Curve